One update, not constant movement
With gameweek 3 of 2026/27 in progress, remember that prices update once a day, overnight UK time. A player can move by at most £0.1m in that update. Changes are driven by net transfers in or out relative to ownership: a heavily owned player needs far more transfers to move than a rarely owned one. Transfer volume alone therefore does not tell you whose price will change.
FPL holds prices in the hours immediately around a deadline, while the game’s own progress figures settle slowly at the start of a season. Our prices page displays FPL’s published progress and projection, not a model of our own. Use it to inform the timing of a transfer you already want, rather than treating a projection as a reason to buy or sell.
Selling price is not market price
You keep half of a price rise, rounded down to £0.1m. Buy a player at £7.0m and watch him reach £7.3m, and your selling price is £7.1m. Your bankable profit is £0.1m, not £0.3m. That distinction matters when planning transfers: work from what you can actually sell the player for, not the price displayed for someone buying him.
Falls are not halved. If a player you own drops £0.2m, your selling price drops the full £0.2m. The asymmetry makes protecting value understandable, but it does not make every sale sensible. Chasing a falling player out of your squad rarely recovers what you think it will. Check the actual selling-price effect before allowing a threatened fall to dictate a transfer.
Pick the player, then the timing
Over a full season, well-managed team value is worth roughly £1–2m of extra spending power. That is useful, but it amounts to one upgrade rather than a reason to reshape your transfer strategy. It is not worth taking a hit or buying a player you do not want. The case for protecting value is strongest when it supports your preferred move, not when it replaces it.
Pick the player you want first, then decide when to act. If two options are genuinely close, favouring the one about to rise is reasonable. If you rate one above the other, a projected rise should not reverse that judgement. You can check tonight’s likely movers on the prices page, currently reading gameweek 3, but use that information to refine your decision rather than make it for you.