When prices change
With gameweek 9 in progress in 2026/27, remember that FPL prices update once a day, overnight UK time. A player can move by no more than £0.1m in a single update. Movement is driven by net transfers in or out relative to ownership: a heavily owned player needs far more transfers to move than a rarely owned one. Transfer volume alone therefore does not tell you who is closest to a change.
FPL holds prices in the hours immediately around a deadline, while the game’s own progress figures settle slowly at the start of a season. Our prices page displays FPL’s published progress and projection, not a model of our own. Use that information to inform the timing of a transfer you already want to make, rather than treating a projected change as a reason to buy or sell.
What you actually keep
You keep half of a price rise, rounded down to £0.1m. Buy a player at £7.0m and watch him reach £7.3m, and your selling price is £7.1m. Your profit is £0.1m, not £0.3m. That distinction matters when planning transfers: the current price is not necessarily the amount available to spend when you sell. Judge your next move against the selling price, not the headline rise.
Falls are not halved: if a player you own drops £0.2m, your selling price drops the full £0.2m. The asymmetry makes protecting value understandable, but it does not make every sale sensible. Chasing a falling player out of your squad rarely recovers what you think it will. Check what the move actually preserves before allowing the prospect of a fall to override your judgement of the player.
Pick the player before the timing
Over a full season, well-managed team value is worth roughly £1–2m of extra spending power. That is useful, but it amounts to one upgrade, not a reason to take a hit or buy someone you do not want. Treat value as a supporting consideration. The case for protecting it is strongest when doing so also fits your preferred transfer; the case against acting is strongest when price is the only attraction.
The order is straightforward: pick the player you want, then decide when to move. If two players are genuinely close in your assessment, favour the one about to rise. Do not choose him over the player you actually rate more highly. You can check tonight’s likely movers on the prices page, currently reading gameweek 9, but use it to settle timing or a close decision—not to choose your transfer for you.