Plan the run, not the average
With gameweek 3 of 2026/27 in progress, use FPL’s own 1–5 fixture difficulty rating to shape your next moves. The averages cover five gameweeks, not just the next opponent. Our data engine expects heavy buying at the top of this list, making purchases before price rises a central part of the opportunity. That is a reason to plan early, not to treat favourable fixtures as guaranteed returns.
Coventry City lead on 2.4, ahead of Crystal Palace and Newcastle on 2.6. Coventry’s sequence is BHA (H), NFO (A), NEW (H), TOT (A), FUL (H); Palace begin IPS (H), LEE (A), NFO (H), while Newcastle start LEE (A), HUL (H), COV (A). Those openings deserve attention, but the supplied regular-starter shortlist contains no players from these clubs. Do not force a purchase purely to follow the lowest average.
Arsenal offer a clear buying route
Arsenal’s 2.8 average covers SUN (A), BHA (A), LEE (H), NFO (A), EVE (H). Ødegaard looks the value-led midfield choice at £6.6m: 24 points, 8.0 per game and 0.84 xGI per 90, against Saka’s £9.5m, 22 points and 0.68 xGI per 90. Saka’s first-on-penalties status is the case for paying more. Prefer Ødegaard if budget drives the decision, but do not assume his current scoring rate will persist.
In defence, Calafiori costs £5.7m and has 22 points, two clean sheets and two attacking returns. White is £5.5m, with 20 points, two clean sheets, one attacking return and 5.0 defensive actions per 90. Calafiori offers the stronger returns so far; White provides a cheaper route at 7.6% ownership against 47.7%. The shared schedule supports either, but ownership alone is not a reason to switch between them.
Chelsea require a price-sensitive choice
Chelsea also average 2.8, with HUL (H), BRE (A), BOU (H), EVE (A), TOT (H). João Pedro costs £7.7m and has delivered 21 points through two goals and two assists, supported by 0.68 xGI per 90. His 72.4% ownership makes him the heavily held option here. Buy for the returns and schedule rather than ownership pressure: the fixture rating describes an even run, not an exceptional one.
Rogers offers 0.81 xGI per 90 at £7.6m, compared with Palmer’s 0.48 at £9.6m. Palmer is first on penalties and has 21 points to Rogers’ 19, so the premium has a clear argument behind it. For a manager choosing where to commit funds, Rogers’ lower price and stronger xGI rate make him compelling. The case against stretching to Palmer is that the same fixtures are available considerably more cheaply.
Fulham reward patience over urgency
Fulham’s 2.8 average conceals a sequence worth separating: LIV (A), MUN (H), then IPS (A), HUL (H), COV (A). King is the supplied route in at £5.5m and 1.1% ownership, with 19 points, 6.3 per game and two goals. Put him on the buying shortlist, but weigh the opening fixtures rather than treating Fulham’s average as equivalent to an immediately inviting run.
King’s 0.43 xGI per 90 gives useful context to those returns: there is attacking involvement behind the points, without a guarantee that the scoring continues. His price makes him worth considering when funds are tight. The case against buying immediately is the fixture order; the case against waiting is the data engine’s expectation of buying pressure and the potential value of getting ahead of price rises.
Sell selectively through tougher runs
Leeds, Brentford and Bournemouth share the hardest average at 3.4. Leeds face NEW (H), CRY (H), ARS (A), MUN (H), SUN (A); Brentford have BOU (A), CHE (H), AVL (A), LIV (H), HUL (A). Bournemouth’s sequence is BRE (H), LIV (H), CHE (A), SUN (H), MUN (A). Use these runs to prioritise potential exits, particularly when an Arsenal or Chelsea option already fits your plans, rather than selling every asset indiscriminately.
Sunderland, Spurs and Man Utd average 3.2. Sunderland open ARS (H), MCI (A), while Man Utd begin MCI (H), FUL (A); Spurs start EVE (H), AVL (H), before MUN (A), COV (H), CHE (A). The order matters when deciding which transfer comes first. With no individual player evidence supplied for these clubs, the ratings justify reviewing your holdings, not declaring them automatic sells. Let the proposed replacement strengthen the case for acting.
